In December 2018, there were three official reports about numbers for FARC dissidents and the expansion of this guerrilla group in Colombia, and they all conclude that this guerrilla group is getting bigger.
According to one of this reports, between 2500 and 3000 dissidents from the FARC group abandoned the peace process and are now part of this new group of dissidents, in different regions of the country. This numbers certainly represent a threat for national security.
Important to notice that today, more than 7200(2206 from ELN) people are involved in crimes in Colombia.
Why can organized crime increase in 2019?
What reasons could there be for this dissidents group to be growing? Lack of opportunities and discontent from the ex-guerrilla members of FARC. This is the result of a poor government plan for the nearly 13000 men who gave up their arms and accepted the peace treaty with President Santos. There has been unfulfilment and modifications (reactivate arrest warrants against ex FARC members, increasing mistrust and legal insecurity)) to the peace agreements. This scenario creates a vulnerable atmosphere for this men who have only known war in their lives. A lot of them have felt insecure to return to a normal life that doesn’t exist anymore with few or none guarantees (lack of protection) from the government.
As dissidents feel insecure and without protection, cocaine trafficking (with international cartels /Venezuela) seems like a good life style alternative according to their criminal history.
Parallel to this, criminality and so insecurity has increased in Colombia during the last 2 years because of several aspects such as expansion of ELN, the arrival of new organized armed groups and the increase of dissidents from FARC. The most affected regions are the Pacific Coast, Catatumbo, Meta, Guaviare, Cauca and Antioquia. Another important situation that increases insecurity in the country is criminal anarchy in unoccupied regions after the peace treaty with FARC.
Venezuela’s migration to Colombia affects security
Additional uncertain conditions of the reincorporation spaces that have created discontent to ex FARC members are precarious health conditions, health standards, housing, public services, unsafe food supplies, absence of own economy and documentation problems, among others.
There are two scenarios that are certain in Colombia today. The number of dissidents from the FARC is increasing rapidly (government is unsure of the real numbers) and alongside with this, national security is being highly compromised.